Predictions by Probst As you know, this entire "new" season of Survivor has already taken place. Except for the selection of the winner at the live season finale... all the competitions, reward challenges, and tribal councils are already completed, edited, and ready for broadcast. However, months ago, when it really was days before the season kicked off... Jeff Probst took a look at the new location, and the new recruits, and gave his thoughts on the new season... as well as the latest castaways and how he thought each would fare. This was broadcast a few days ago on the TV Guide Channel's "Survivor: Cook Islands Preview." One "secret" that they leaked to us was that they would be keeping some traditions from previous seasons. This includes the Exile Island twist from last season, and a “marooning” of the cast in the opening, just as they did in the very first season. That’s right, no more of these little motorboats taking the survivors and their belongings safely up to shore so their little tootsies don’t have to get wet. They’re going to have to grab what they need, leap off the boat, and paddle to shore! Can they actually be surprised by this? Have they not seen this show before..??? And once they all struggle to shore, how are they all going to do? Well Jeff gave his two-cents on what he thought of each contestant. In his own words, he identified "who he thought would be an asset, and who he thought would just be a pain in the ass." Brilliant! So how did Jeff think everyone would do? Let's look in...! Aitutaki Tribe (Hispanic) They kicked things off with Christina. They provided a visual of her welding a machete, while they mentioned her back story of being shot twice in the line of duty, and at one time being told she would most likely lose the use of her left arm. “Christina, to me, seems like she has a real shot of winning this game.” I’m sure Jeff’s use of the word “shot” was an oversight. Nicely done, Jeff! Way to be sensitive! J.P. commented offhandedly that even though filming hadn’t officially began, that the producers had already started screwing with them since they arrived in the Cook Islands. He wasn’t surprised though, and said he was ready to be messed with. Well, you’re in the right place then, J.P.! These Survivor guys love to torture you all… and if they don’t feel like they’ve done enough to you on the island, they’ll attack you after the fact with “creative” editing. Case in point? There was no commentary given by Jeff about J.P. See, J.P., they’re still screwing with you! Ozzy was described as heading to the island “with a lifelong love affair with the water.” That’s good to know, Ozzy, because that’s the only kind of lovin’ you’re going to be getting for the next 39 days. (Unless this really IS going to be a season of Survivor unlike anything we’ve ever seen before. We can only hope!) Jeff’s impression of Ozzy? Short and sweet: “Ozzy is another guy I actually think can win this game.” Cecilia, looked a little puzzled while trying to figure out what to do with the one cooking pot her tribe was given. We also got a little “plumber’s crack” shot as she bent over to do some housecleaning in her little shelter. And Jeff didn’t beat around the bush about her chances: “Cecilia has no chance of winning this game, that’s what I think. But I think she’s going to be an asset because of her attitude.” Well, there you go. That’s the Survivor version of “she has a nice personality.” Introduced as a wrestler, guitarist, and former Marine… Billy just looked like a big boy as he lumbered around camp. In his audio he is heard saying that he has a black belt in Judo and Karate, but prefers to wrestle. And Jeff seems to love him. “He’s just seems extremely likeable. It would be hard to vote him out, especially early. I think he’ll be around for a while.” I’m not sure his tribe mates will think he’s so likeable when they hear he’s “planning to play human chess with these guys”. Billy, the most powerful piece on the chessboard is the queen. Are you ready to be a queen to win this game…? Manihiki Tribe (African-American) The first tribemate we are introduced to is Nathan. Nathan’s strategy? “I’m not gonna be the bossy type, I’m just gonna be a hard worker”. But then he added, “I’ll make my moves when I need to make my moves.” So keep an eye out for Nathan making his moves! And what does Jeff have to say? “He just has a way about him that is extremely likeable. I would hate to see him leave early.” Come on guys, let’s start up a collection to buy Jeff a Thesaurus for Christmas. He needs to come up with another phrase besides “extremely likable.” Then we get a brief introduction to Stephannie. Stephannie, we are told, has auditioned for Survivor three times. But her dogged determination has paid off! Now she is far from home, stranded on an island with strangers and no water or food. Way to go, Stephannie! Jeff had some nice things to say. “Stephannie's been through a lot of military training, she’s getting her second college degree, she really applies herself.” Sadly, he doesn’t mention Stephannie and the game of Survivor in the same sentence, so I can only assume he doesn’t have the highest expectations for her. Rebecca is our make-up artist from “The View”. She referred to her professional background as “I come from a tough ship basically, where I’m dealing with a lot of celebrities and a lot of divas. You have to be able to finagle, and to be able to not offend anyone, but at the same time get what you need from that person.” I’m not sure if she’s had experience finagling for the support she’ll need on Survivor, but it will be fun to see if she can translate tap-dancing around celebrities to shmoozing for votes. Jeff seems to think she’ll do okay however. “A woman that can hold her own, it’s something you need out here.” We barely get a blip of Sundra. We’re told only that she’s a single mom and that she has her 5-year old son as a guardian angel to get her through the tough days. Since Jeff didn’t even bother to offer his comments on Sundra’s chances, let’s put our eggs in someone else’s basket. Good news is, Sundra probably won’t have to be missing her son very long, she’ll probably be out early. (By an “unfortunate production incident”, mark my words!) And the last member of the Manihiki tribe we meet is Sekou. Jeff comments, “I think on his tribe initially, he’ll be one of the leaders mainly because of age and experience.” But when Sekou starts talking on his own behalf, it becomes clear that the experience he plans to rely on is his “survivor skills from growing up in the city in some bad neighborhoods.” Well, there’s something to be said for street smarts, but unless he had to boil gutter water to make it drinkable, forage for berries in Central Park, and convince the local gang not to “vote him off” the block… he may not have a lot of applicable survivor skills to draw upon. But I’m sure he’ll be “extremely likeable.” Raratonga Tribe (Caucasian) The review of this tribe begins with Jessica, a.k.a. “Flicka Flame” the fire dancer and roller derby girl. We see crazy-haired Jessica dragging things up the beach as we hear Jeff note that Jessica “looks a lot like Courtney from last season”. ( You remember Courtney, right? Irritating beyond belief, and in her own personal bliss when she won her luxury items in a challenge and then proceeded to give everyone a disturbing display of fire dancing as she swung balls of flame around camp?) Yep, we’ve got another one of those this year. Jessica gave her opinion on the matter, “To have another fire performer, that’s cool! At least we’re artists!” That’s right, Jessica… Monet, Renoir, Van Gogh, Donatello… and you and Courtney. So what does Jeff think? “If she can get some momentum, she'll probably be around for a while”. But then he quietly added, “…can't win the game." Then we see Adam. There isn’t a single shot of him where he isn’t shirt-free and doing something physical. Adam also thinks that is where his strength lies. “I think I’m physically better than most of the other contestants.” Awww… cute AND humble! Well, Jeff has another take on the matter. “Adam… not gonna win this game. He'll probably want to punch me for saying that. It (the game) plays on another level he may just not be into, or may not have the skills yet. It's a dicey social game." Sorry Adam, the King has spoken. You can have all the strength in the world, but if you don’t have the social skills… you’re off the island! Poor Parvarti… we barely get to visit her. We get the mention that she’s a boxer, and hear her telling us that she’s “done martial arts ever since I was little,” as she kicks the surf up with her toes. But that’s about it. No insight from Jeff on her chances in this battle. Maybe Jeff was afraid if he said something unsupportive, she would box his ears? Then we get the glowy-halo light around Candice. We’re told that she’s a straight-A student, and the youngest player this season… but that she has a take-charge attitude that will certainly serve her well in this game. Jeff seems impressed as well. "If I were predicting people that had a shot of winning, I would put Candice on that list." Candice is then heard reminiscing about how she’s been very driven and competitive her whole life. In fact, that her parents actually told her growing up that she had “to learn how to let somebody else win sometimes”. Candice continues, telling us that she strives to win so much that, “I think that pisses people off sometimes.” Well Missy, you’re not here to make friends, so go for it! If you win the million dollars, you can buy new friends! Our final visit is with Jonathan. We catch him reclining back on the beach, giving his interview. His thoughts on the competition? “Some of these guys are obviously super workout psycho’s. You know, muscles on muscles. And if you have nothing but muscle on you, that’s all you have to lose. Losing muscle is going to be more debilitating to them than a fat old guy like me.” Heyyy… I kind of like this guy’s attitude! He can be out of shape, and be superior about it! And what does Jeff think? "Jonathan is one of my favorites. Not necessarily likeable, but I hope he lasts a while. I think he'll create good stories." Wha… someone that isn’t “extremely likeable?” Well hell… we’re gonna have to keep an eye on this guy! Puka Puka Tribe (Asian-American) In our last tribe, we first meet Jenny. We see Jenny milling about the camp site, while we hear how she plays competitive volleyball year-round, and how that makes her feel as if she’s prepared for the physical requirements of Survivor. (Uhhh… Jenny, there’s a professional volleyball player on the Aitutaki tribe. If that’s all you’re bringing to the table, you may be outmatched.) In addition she tells us, “Mentally, I think I can take on the challenges of the game.” Jeff seems to see something in her as well. "I would expect her to be around for a long time, and I would think that if she got in trouble, she would fight to stay in this game." Then we’re introduced to Brad. Brad’s little overview is all about how since he kept his true sexuality under wraps for years, he is well prepared for the dishonesty and deception of this game. Brad goes on to give us details, about how in high school he played football, was co-captain of the football team, and dated a cheerleader… while in college he dated a sorority girl, all the time knowing that he was gay. He also throws in that he likes to swim and fish, and that he’s excited and “ready to rock and roll”. I just don’t know what to make of Brad. Obviously, Jeff didn’t either… because he gave no commentary on his thoughts on Brad’s chances in the game. Now we meet Cao Boi. Right away, we hear Jeff’s impressions: "The only thing about Cao Boi is he's a LOT. He kind of invades your space a little. He wants to tell you something, and he really wants to tell you about it. Cao Boi, if I had to guess, would be gone early." Uh oh…. doesn’t sound good for our resident eccentric. Cao Boi is confident however, quite sure that he’s the right kind of guy to win this game. He makes a strong statement: “I live by my honor, what I say goes… no exceptions.” Oh man… Cao Boi, you don’t really know how to finesse, do you? This game is all about finesse, wise one. I guess you’ll find that out soon enough. Jenny, a former kick box instructor, is introduced to us as she is throwing kicks on the beach. In her interview, she talks about how her young looks will help her. “I have a baby face, so others will see someone that doesn’t look judgmental.” I guess this means that she actually is judgmental, and the others won’t see it coming? Sadly, being judgmental isn’t really defined by your looks, it’s more about your voice. As baby faced as you may be, if you’re throwing snarky comments around the campfire, you’re going to be labeled judgmental! Jeff passed on the opportunity to talk about Jenny… probably didn’t want to be judged. And finally, we have Yul. They show shots of him working hard around camp, and then see him quietly sitting on a log while he talks about why he wanted to be on Survivor. “I like physical competition, I like intellectual puzzles, and there’s nothing out there that combines those two elements like Survivor.” As the voiceover talks more about Yul, they say things like he’s the “type of Renaissance man that has a great shot at winning this game.” Even Jeff can’t contain his enthusiasm for this guy. "Yul could absolutely win this game. I'd be delighted if he did, he's a super likeable guy." Wow… not extremely likeable, SUPER likeable. Careful Jeff… you’re letting your favoritism show! So there you go. That’s our little taste of who’s going after the big prize this season, and whom the insiders think has a real chance to win. But you never know… maybe the ones that were mentioned the least will be the ones that do the best. I guess we’ll have to find out with the rest of the world. Get your TiVo’s ready, Survivor starts on Thursday!